Scrum to overtake PMI in 2014, Google Trend Forecast says

Last post 10:05 am December 19, 2013
by Ludwig Harsch
6 replies
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01:33 pm December 18, 2013

Google forecasts that according to the interests of their users, Scrum might overtake PMI in early 2014.
What do you think about this?

01:36 pm December 18, 2013

Sorry, here is the link.
http://www.google.de/trends/explore#q=scrum%2C%20%2Fm%2F03ngvz&cmpt=q
Somehow the screenshot is not visible.

11:34 pm December 18, 2013

I think it's awesomeness, and helps tell the story that PMI techniques in the software biz are out, and Agile methods are in!

02:15 am December 19, 2013

This graph does not tell me anything as it shows the search trend on google. I think PMI will still have a good positioning in general Project Management.

08:28 am December 19, 2013

I would agree with Joshua on this. The data is based on what users search and type in in Google. As stated on the site:

"Measuring search interest in topics is a beta feature which quickly provides accurate measurements of overall search interest. To measure search interest for a specific query, select the "search term" option."

Nevertheless, this gives some food for thought as interest in Scrum raises when compared to PMI so thanks for sharing Ludwig. On the other hand, PMI also started promoting it's own certification called "PMI Agile Certified Practitioner (PMI-ACP)" so it also tries to position itself according to current trends. I don't have any knowledge on what the above certification is based though but that's off the topic.

08:52 am December 19, 2013

Lies damned lies and statistics perhaps, but for what it's worth here are some hit counts I've pulled from Wikipedia. Figures are valid as of today.

Agile_software_development has been viewed 572526 times in the last 90 days.
Scrum_(software_development) has been viewed 406424 times in the last 90 days.
Test-driven_development has been viewed 119114 times in the last 90 days.
PRINCE2 has been viewed 93912 times in the last 90 days.
Extreme_programming has been viewed 85653 times in the last 90 days.
Behavior-driven_development has been viewed 63735 times in the last 90 days.
Pair_programming has been viewed 38780 times in the last 90 days.
Project_Management_Institute has been viewed 30138 times in the last 90 days.
Dynamic_systems_development_method has been viewed 30121 times in the last 90 days.
Technical_debt has been viewed 25978 times in the last 90 days.

10:05 am December 19, 2013

Thank you guys for your interesting thoughts on this. I agree with the statement that the chart shows user interest and nothing more, that's what I said at the beginning. I didn't say anything about Scrum replacing PMI as a project management method - don't forget it's made for product management.

Posted By m_konkel on 19 Dec 2013 08:28 AM
On the other hand, PMI also started promoting it's own certification called "PMI Agile Certified Practitioner (PMI-ACP)" so it also tries to position itself according to current trends. I don't have any knowledge on what the above certification is based though but that's off the topic.

It may be, but now you started: I have asked a trainer who gives PMP prep courses about PMI-ACP and he instantly suggested to try Scrum. I had no more questions.