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Cone of Uncertainty

Last post 08:26 pm March 11, 2024 by Larissa Gama Felipe
9 replies
08:31 pm September 12, 2019

Not in the Scrum guide although it's mentioned a lot regarding PSM-1 exam.  How much material is not mentioned in the Guide that will be on the exam?

02:37 pm September 13, 2019

Read the suggested material for the exam and you'll be fine.

07:11 am September 1, 2020

indeed this question is still in the exam 2020. I cannot find it in the ... one point can make the difference between fail or success. 

05:30 pm September 1, 2020

My advice is to know what a cone of uncertainty is, and how to produce one -- using empirical evidence -- to make a qualified forecast. Understand why this is more useful than a forecast expressed with undue precision.

12:08 pm September 7, 2020

I did my first attempt yesterday and finished up with 82.3%. There were few questions with the team building and team management scenarios.

eg: There were 100 developers, how the scrum teams were divided.... etc

Are there any resources, which I can refer to this type of knowledge since I have to get ready for my 2nd attempt.



05:59 pm September 8, 2020

There are two teams mentioned in the Scrum Guide.

My suggestion would be to read the descriptions for both, and highlight anything that sounds different to what you might expect of a team in a traditional organization.

Then also read through where these teams are mentioned throughout the entire Scrum Guide and consider the nouns, verbs and concepts used in connection with these teams.

Make a note of the things that don't make sense, or seem strange to you.

You may then have a lot of questions that you want to find answers to. You could do your own research, look for answers in books, blogs, videos, old forum topics, etc, or post new topics here to ask for opinions of others.

04:52 pm January 1, 2021

Development Team size is between 3 and 9

small enough to communicate and interoperate effectively and large enough to complete the work committed in the sprint,

differentiate between Scrum team and Development team, and pay attention if they are intersected.

05:46 pm January 5, 2021

I had the same question about the Cone of Uncertainty

Here are the definitions found from Scrum and Web pages :

  • The “Cone of Uncertainty” describes the reduction of the uncertainty about scope after each iteration. At the uncertainty is eliminated and the exact amount of scope is known. (with a cone graph)
  • Illustrate that, as a forecast lengthens, it is increasingly less certain.
  • It shows how much is known about the Product over time.
  • It's helping a Product Owner estimate how much work is likely to be done during a certain number of Sprints.

08:06 am September 14, 2023

I got this question:

What does Cone of Uncertainty show?

And my answer is that: 

  • It shows how much is known about the Product over time.

04:19 pm March 10, 2024 This video is really useful, truly recommended to understand better the cone of uncertainty.

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