Calculate project work risk completion rate
Calculate project work risk completion rate based on
- Work effort/work-effort weight
- # of tasks completed
Project Unit: Milestone-1 - Milestone-4, MVP-1 (includes All milestones)
Work effort for each milestone (e.g. Milestone-1 = 3 points or small work effort, Milestone-2 = 5 or medium, Milestone-3 = 8 or large)
Work-effort weight for each Milestone (in %)
% or # of Completed tasks per a Milestone
How do I include the time in the equation? Say we have a start date and projected due date or duration (e.g. x weeks or days or months), I need to calculate the risk of completing a task (milestone and the entire MVP) on time based on the current # of tasks completed.
In other words, what is the risk (small/medium/large) that a Milestone/Milestones/MVP will be completed on time (say, Mar-31, 2023) based on the number of tasks completed (15 of 40)?
Please let me know if I need to clarify
I really appreciate any help you can provide.
The use of the term "risk" here is a bit confusing to me, but it sounds like what you're trying to do is forecast the likelihood of completing a set body of work by a given date.
If you have historical data, you can use flow metrics like cycle time and throughput to forecast the completion date. If you have sufficient historical data, you can use Monte Carlo methods to add probablistic forecasting and more robust confidence indicators.
Of course, it's important to note that any type of forecasting like this is dependent on the total amount of work remaining. If you're using agile methods, like Scrum, you should be acknowledging that there are inherent unknowns and uncertainty in the remaining work. By doing some of the work and getting feedback, you will discover that some of the work may not be necessary to achieve the desired results and you will also discover some previously unknown work that does need to be completed. Any estimate or forecast would be based on what you know today, which is likely going to be different than what you know tomorrow or next week, so you would need to reguarly reforecast.
Think of the Sprint as being the project. That's the risk control mechanism. The leap-of-faith taken, before obtaining an empirical outcome, is never more than one month.
Scrum is about learning to build the right thing at the right time. The risk of failing to do so cannot be reduced to plugging numbers in for a set body of work and then turning a handle.