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Probabilistic Forecasting and Flow with Scrum

Probabalistic Forecasting and Flow with Scrum

In this whitepaper, Professional Scrum Trainer Alex van der Star explores the concept of probabilistic forecasting and its application in Scrum. He discusses the limitations of using average velocity for forecasting and introduces the idea of incorporating Kanban practices to improve flow in Scrum Teams. By focusing on flow metrics such as Cycle Time and Throughput, teams can make more accurate forecasts and better prioritize their work. The paper also includes a practical example of using Monte Carlo simulation for forecasting. 

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