In our last post, we said Agile estimation isn’t broken because of the techniques.
It is the thinking behind them. Read it here.
We explored the Cone of Uncertainty and how forecasting is not about precision.
It is about recognising that the more we do not know, the less predictable things become.
Now let’s talk about velocity.
Because it is one of the most misunderstood numbers in product development.
It is not the only option. It might not even be the best. But it is one of the most common we see.
Before we explore other ways to forecast and plan, we need to clear up what velocity is and what it is not.
Velocity is not a target. It is a result.
Velocity reflects how much work a team completed in a Sprint.
Usually that is measured in story points.
That is it.
It is not speed.
It is not productivity.
It is not something to hit.
It is something to notice.
Used well, it helps a team answer questions like:
- What do we usually finish?
- Are we consistent?
- What might we forecast next?
That is all. And that can be enough, if we approach it the right way.
Where it goes wrong
Teams often say velocity reflects past performance.
But then they:
- Treat the average like a promise
- Expect consistency in an inconsistent world
- Use it to compare teams
- Tie it to bonuses
- Forget what it is actually for
Suddenly, velocity becomes a target.
And once that happens, estimates get inflated, forecasts get rigid, and trust takes a hit.
Yes, there are better ways to plan. But we always meet teams where they are. Not where we wish they were.
Once the mindset shifts, better approaches usually follow.
Let’s make it real
Two towns. One hundred and forty miles apart.
The speed limit is seventy miles an hour.
So the journey takes two hours?
Of course not.
You are not driving at seventy the whole way.
There is traffic. Roadworks. Time of day. Weather. Roundabouts. Delays.
When you plan a trip, you do not give an exact time.
You give a range based on what you know.
That is forecasting. That is the Cone of Uncertainty.
And that same mindset applies to product development too.
Old sat nav versus live traffic
Modern sat navs give you an ETA based on what is happening.
They adjust constantly. They do not promise a fixed arrival time.
The old ones? They just used distance and speed.
One helps you make better decisions. The other gives you a false sense of control.
If your team uses velocity like a fixed number, you are running with an outdated sat nav.
Forecasts should adjust as you learn more.
Velocity becomes useful again when you use a range
If you are using velocity to forecast, do not just take the average. Use a range:
- Best case
- Typical case
- Worst case
This gives you flexibility and realism.
It turns velocity into a conversation instead of a score.
Understanding velocity in Agile
Velocity is often used by teams who estimate work using relative sizing, most commonly with story points.
It is not a perfect approach. But it gives teams a shared way to talk about complexity and track how much they finish each Sprint.
When we support teams, we often use this sketch to help reset how people think about velocity.
Velocity is just a result.
It is not a target. It is not a promise. It is not speed.
It reflects what got done, not what was started.
We only count completed work. That is what matters.
We also remind teams not to focus only on the average.
Instead, we ask:
- What was your lowest Sprint velocity
- What was your average
- What was your highest
That range says more than any single number.
It shows variability and uncertainty.
We will explore how that connects to forecasting in the next blog.
Of course, there are more powerful ways to plan. But not every team is ready for that yet. And that is OK.
We meet teams where they are. Not where we want them to be.
Velocity is what many teams use. So we help them use it well.
That is the reason for this post.
Not to promote velocity.
But to explain it. To ground it.
And to help teams move forward with the right mindset.
One last thing
Velocity is not perfect.
But for many teams, it is a step toward better planning and more honest conversations.
Used well, it builds trust.
Used poorly, it creates waste.
The number is not the point.
The thinking is.
Coming soon:
- Velocity and the Cone of Uncertainty. Together at Last?
- Maybe Your Story Points Are Pointless?