In our previous post, we examined how velocity is often misinterpreted.
- Averages become commitments
- Story points turn into deadlines
- And we lose sight of what estimation is really for, helping better conversations happen
If you missed it, start here: Velocity. It’s Not What You Think It Is. That post built on our opening piece: Agile Estimation Is Not Broken. The Thinking Is.
Now that we have laid that groundwork, we meet teams where they are and help them grow from there.
Many teams still track velocity, still use release burndowns.
Are these great tools? No, there are better ways.
But what is familiar gives us a way in.
Shift the Conversation
Instead of relying on an average, we apply what we know about uncertainty:
- Best case
- Typical case
- Worst case
Suddenly, velocity becomes a forecast. Not a fixed plan.
And we go from asking if we will hit the date to:
- What are we confident will get done
- What is at risk
- What trade-offs are we willing to make
It is not about being perfect. It is about bringing more transparency and collaboration.
So we can have better conversations around expectations, value and risk.
Make the Work Visible
We often see teams using release burndowns. But instead of treating them as fixed plans or status reports, we combine them with a cone of uncertainty.
This small change helps shift the conversation:
- If we are trending in the red, that tells us what is at high risk
- If we are inside the cone, that is where we have higher confidence, if nothing major changes
- It is not about certainty. It is about making risk visible, setting expectations, to enabling collaboration
Now the burndown becomes a conversation about expectations, value and trade-offs.
Not just delivery pace.
Use What You Already Have
If your team has used velocity for a while, you already have historical data.
You can use that data better by asking:
- What was our lowest Sprint velocity
- What was our typical range
- What was our highest
This is not perfect. However, it provides a starting point for forecasting using ranges instead of fixed numbers.
From Velocity to Flow
This approach helps shift the conversation away from effort and toward uncertainty and value.
Once that happens, we can go further. We can help teams move beyond velocity and explore better ways to forecast using actual delivery data like throughput and flow.
We know where we want teams to go. But change does not happen overnight.
Sometimes, a few well-timed nudges and some mindset shifts are all it takes.
Coming Next
Maybe story points and velocity were never the best way to forecast.
In our next post, we will share a simple experiment to help teams rethink estimation and move forward.